How Casino Comp Valuation Actually Works: Theoretical Win, ADT, and What Pit Bosses Really Track
By The Comp Analyst
Most players think comps are based on what they lose. They aren't. Comps are based on what the casino expects you to lose — a number the industry calls theoretical win, or "theo." Understand theo and you understand every reward decision a casino ever makes about you.
The One Formula That Runs Everything
Behind every mailer, room comp, and dinner offer is a single equation:
Theoretical Win = Average Bet × Hands (or Decisions) Per Hour × Hours Played × House Edge
That number — not your actual loss, not your bankroll, not how you dress at the table — is what the casino uses to decide what you're worth as a customer.
Table Games: The Pit Boss's Job
At table games, a live human — the pit boss or floor supervisor — decides your rating. When you sit down and hand your card to the dealer, they'll enter you into the tracking system with three key data points:
- Average bet. Not your opening wager, and not your biggest bet. Bosses eye the table for 5–15 minutes and estimate the middle of your betting range.
- Time played. Logged with a stopwatch mentality — buy-in time to color-up time.
- Game type and rules. A 6:5 blackjack table carries a much higher house edge than 3:2, and your theo reflects it.
Multiply those together against an assumed hands-per-hour figure (often 60–80 for blackjack heads-up, closer to 50 with a full table) and you get your theo.
Slots and Video Poker: The Software Does It
For slot and video poker players, the calculation is even cleaner because the machine records everything. Every card-in session captures total coin-in — the sum of every dollar wagered, regardless of whether it came from your original buy-in or from previous wins recycled into further bets.
Theo on slots is simply:
Coin-In × Machine Hold %
Hold percentage varies from about 4% on the tightest video poker to 12–15% on penny slots. It's the single biggest lever between two players with identical bankrolls receiving wildly different comp offers.
ADT: Where Theo Turns Into Offers
Individual sessions matter, but the number casinos really care about is Average Daily Theo, or ADT. It's your rolling theo per trip day, averaged over some window — usually 6, 12, or 18 months depending on the property.
ADT is the number that shows up in your player-database record when a host pulls it up. It determines:
- Whether you get a host at all (some casinos won't assign one below ~$250 ADT)
- What tier of mailer offers you receive
- Whether an on-the-spot comp request gets approved
- How many complimentary nights you're offered per year
The Reinvestment Rate
Not all of your theo comes back to you. Casinos give back a percentage — the reinvestment rate — that typically lands in a fairly tight band:
| Property Type | Typical Reinvestment Rate |
|---|---|
| Las Vegas Strip (Caesars, MGM) | 0.25% – 0.35% |
| Vegas Locals (Station, Boyd) | 0.35% – 0.55% |
| Downtown Vegas | 0.30% – 0.45% |
| Regional / Tribal (varies) | 0.20% – 0.50% |
Multiply your theo by the property's reinvestment rate and you have a defensible target for what to ask a host for. If you generated $2,000 of theo on a Strip trip, a comp package worth ~$300–$400 is not an unreasonable ask; asking for $1,000 is.
What Pit Bosses Are Really Looking For
The single most misunderstood part of table rating: pit bosses are optimizing for accuracy, not generosity, and they'll typically split the difference on a betting range. If you're bouncing between $25 and $75 with no obvious pattern, expect an average bet in the $40s. If you spread wide only after a hot run, that hot-run spread rarely counts.
A few habits that pit bosses do notice — and quietly reward:
- Consistent bet sizing across the whole session
- Playing longer sessions (2+ hours) rather than short in-and-outs
- Being pleasant and known by name — it doesn't move theo, but it moves the discretionary layer on top of theo
Practical Takeaway
You don't need to lose money to earn comps — you need to give the casino expected loss to track. Consistent bet sizing, full-hour sessions, and always playing carded are the three levers you actually control. Everything else — the mailer volume, the room offers, the host relationship — flows downstream from your ADT.
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Keep learning: Caesars vs MGM Rewards: Which Is Better? · Las Vegas Casino Comps: Complete Guide